Uncertainty

This book explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis.

Zusammenfassung
Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained in this book which outlines its source and nature, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviews methods of analyzing uncertainty.

Inhalt
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.

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