Prediction or Prophecy?

Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions.

Gregor Betz explores the following questions:

" Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge?
" Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken?
" Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation.


Autorentext
Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.

Inhalt
Assessing the predictive limits of economics.- Recent performance of economic forecasts.- A historical perspective on economic forecast performance.- Forecast performance in natural sciences.- Understanding the predictive limits of economics.- Predictability of complex systems.- The quality of data.- Expectations and reflexiveness.- Sensitive dependence on initial conditions.- Experiment and simulation.- Unrealistic-assumption explanations.- Living with the predictive limits of economics.- Consequences for traditional decision making.- Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance.- Post-normal science.

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