The Future of Logistics

Scenario planning is considered the most prominent and powerful technique of futures research. There are, however, indications that such planning practices are not widespread in the logistics service industry. Why and to what extend is this so?

Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries. He further elaborates that the potentials of scenario planning in logistics are, nevertheless, exceptionally high. Explorative research has therefore been conducted that comprises a scenario study on the future of the logistics service industry in the year 2025. Based on a two-round modified Delphi survey with 30 top logistics executives a surprising but realistic picture of the future has been drawn. The scenarios are intended to provide a sound planning basis for long-term logistics decisions, to illustrate the value and potentials of the technique, and to exemplify a systematic scenario development.


Autorentext
Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht ist Leiter des Centers for Futures Studies in Logistics & SCM am Supply Management Institute (SMI) der European Business School (EBS) in Oestrich-Winkel.



Zusammenfassung
Peter F. Drucker, one of the world's most influential management gurus of all times, once said that the best way to predict the future is to create it. In other words, those managers who systematically study the future have also the power to shape and influence the future. By the means of anticipation they can prepare for the expected as well as the unexpected which allows them to react more flexible and faster than competitors. Futures research, i.e. the interdisciplinary and systematic analysis of the future, has matured to both a theoretic- conceptual and application-oriented research discipline. In his dissertation, Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht concentrates on its most prominent and powerful tool: the scenario technique. The future of the logistics service industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges and opportunities. The industry experiences strong growth rates, but is also confronted with high complexity and dynamism. Intensifying globalisation, stronger competition, and higher customer demands are just some of the factors that lead to a more turbulent and uncertain environment. Against this background, there is a considerable need for futures orientation and innovation in logistics in order to establish flexibility, creativity, and the ability to adapt to changes quickly. The scenario technique is in fact one of the best tools to support decision making under uncertainty and can therefore be considered of high value for the logistics environment. Nevertheless, its proliferation among logistics service providers is low.

Inhalt
Theoretical Foundations of Futures Research.- The Delphi Technique for Futures Research.- Fundamentals of Scenario Planning.- Scenario Planning in Strategic Logistics Management.- Research Design and Methodology.- Practices of Scenario Planning in the Logistics Service Industry.- Expert-Based Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry 2025.- Summary and Conclusions.

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