The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap

Compare global experiences during the balance sheet recession
and find out what is needed for a full recovery

The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap
details the many hidden dangers remaining as the world slowly
recovers from the balance sheet recession of 2008. Author and
leading economist Richard Koo explains the unique political and
economic pitfalls that stand in the way of recovery from this rare
type of recession that was largely overlooked by economists. Koo
anticipated the current predicament in the West long before others
and issued warnings in his previous books: Balance Sheet
Recession and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics. This new
book illustrates how history is repeating itself in Europe while
the United States, which learnt from the Japanese experience, is
doing better by avoiding the fiscal cliff. However, because of the
liberal dosage of quantitative easing already implemented, the
United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan may face a treacherous
path to normalcy in what Koo calls the QE Trap. He argues that it
is necessary to understand balance sheet recession in order to
resolve the Eurozone crisis, particularly the competitiveness
problems. Koo issues warnings against those who are too ready to
argue for structural reforms when the problems are actually with
balance sheets. He re-examines Japan's two decades of experiences
with this rare recession and offers an insider view on the
Abenomics. On China, readers will gain a very different historical
perspective as Koo argues that western commentators have forgotten
their own history when they talk about the re-balancing of the
Chinese economy.

* Learn from Japan which experienced the same predicament
afflicting the West fifteen years earlier

* Discover how unwinding of quantitative easing will affect the
United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, as well as the emerging
world

* Examine solutions to the Eurozone problems caused by two
balance sheet recessions eight years apart

* Gain insight into China's problems from the West's own
experiences with urbanisation

Koo, who developed the concept of balance sheet recession based
on Japan's experience, took the revolution in macroeconomics
started by John Maynard Keynes in 1936 to a new height. The
Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap offers the
world cure for balance sheet recession.

Autorentext
RICHARD C. KOO is the Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute, a research arm of Nomura Securities, the leading securities house in Japan. Best known for developing the concept of balance sheet recession, which is now used widely around the world, he has also advised successive prime ministers on how best to deal with Japan's economic and banking problems. Consistently voted as one of the most reliable economists by Japanese market participants for over a decade, he was a Doctoral Fellow of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to joining Nomura.

Zusammenfassung
Compare global experiences during the balance sheet recession and find out what is needed for a full recovery The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap details the many hidden dangers remaining as the world slowly recovers from the balance sheet recession of 2008. Author and leading economist Richard Koo explains the unique political and economic pitfalls that stand in the way of recovery from this rare type of recession that was largely overlooked by economists. Koo anticipated the current predicament in the West long before others and issued warnings in his previous books: Balance Sheet Recession and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics. This new book illustrates how history is repeating itself in Europe while the United States, which learnt from the Japanese experience, is doing better by avoiding the fiscal cliff. However, because of the liberal dosage of quantitative easing already implemented, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan may face a treacherous path to normalcy in what Koo calls the QE Trap. He argues that it is necessary to understand balance sheet recession in order to resolve the Eurozone crisis, particularly the competitiveness problems. Koo issues warnings against those who are too ready to argue for structural reforms when the problems are actually with balance sheets. He re-examines Japan's two decades of experiences with this rare recession and offers an insider view on the Abenomics. On China, readers will gain a very different historical perspective as Koo argues that western commentators have forgotten their own history when they talk about the re-balancing of the Chinese economy. Learn from Japan which experienced the same predicament afflicting the West fifteen years earlier Discover how unwinding of quantitative easing will affect the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, as well as the emerging world Examine solutions to the Eurozone problems caused by two balance sheet recessions eight years apart Gain insight into China's problems from the West's own experiences with urbanisation Koo, who developed the concept of balance sheet recession based on Japan's experience, took the revolution in macroeconomics started by John Maynard Keynes in 1936 to a new height. The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap offers the world cure for balance sheet recession.

Inhalt
Foreword xix About the Author xxv Chapter 1 Balance Sheet Recession TheoryBasic Concepts 1 GDP and Inflation Fueled by Growth in Money Supply, Not Monetary Base 5 Japan Fell into Balance Sheet Recession in 1990s 10 Plunging Asset Prices Create Balance Sheet Problems for Businesses 12 Japanese Firms Rushed to Repair Balance Sheets by Paying Down Debt 13 Correct Private Sector Behavior Tipped Japan into Contractionary Equilibrium 14 Collapse of Japan's Bubble Destroyed ¥1,500 Trillion in Wealth 16 Why Japanese GDP Did Not Fall after Bubble Burst 18 Fiscal Stimulus Saved Japan's Economy 21 Good Fiscal Deficits Were Not Perceived as Such 23 Balance Sheet Recessions and the Limitations of Econometric Models 25 Fiscal Stimulus Works in Two Stages 28 FDR Made Same Mistake in 1937 28 Reactive Fiscal Stimulus Is Far Less Efficient 30 Fiscal Deficits Are Easily Financed during Balance Sheet Recessions 31 Self-Corrective Mechanism for Economies in Balance Sheet Recessions 33 Two Types of Fiscal Deficits Require Different Responses 34 Fiscal Deficits Must Be Viewed Relative to Private Savings 36 Consequences of Leaving Things Up to the Market in a Balance Sheet Recession 37 GFC Triggered by Insistence on Market Principles 40 Volcker Understood Systemic Crises 41 Little to Be Gained from Bashing Those Who Have Already Come to Their Senses 42 Recovery from Balance Sheet Recession Takes Time 43 Forward Guidance Important for Fiscal as Well as Monetary Policy 43 Fiscal Consolidation: Better Too Late Than Too Early 45 Three Points to Consider Regarding Costs for Future Generations 47 Japan Had a Shot at Full Recovery in 1996 . . . 49 Conflation of Balance Sheet and Structural Problems Extends Recession 50 Distinguishing Balance Sheet Recessions from Structural Problems and Financial Crises 53 Democracies Are Ill-Equipped for Dealing with Balance Sheet Recessions 55 Keynes Also Overlooked Private-Sector Debt Minimization 56 Those Who Prevent Crises Never Become Heroes 58 Democracy Plus Balance Sheet Recess…

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